A Housing Shortage on the Horizon?

SmartMoney (7/26/10); Lisa Scherzer

A Housing Shortage on the Horizon?

If you take a step back from the current doom and gloom of foreclosures and declining sales and focus on the low construction levels over the past few years, some economists say a housing shortage might be in the offing. A 2009 report by Massachusetts Institute of Technology economics professor William Wheaton says that despite the glut of existing homes, with current depressed levels of construction, there might be “excess demand” for newly constructed homes. We’re only adding about 600,000 new housing units a year now, and the long-term growth in new households is 1.3 million to 1.4 million per year, says Ross DeVol, executive director of economic research at the Milken Institute. The household formation rate has fallen off somewhat because of the recession. But that decline is misleading because college graduates have chosen to live at home with their parents while they find their financial footing, and people defer getting married for a year or two. But long term, that household growth says that “if we build substantially less than that amount, which we’re doing now, in four, five or six years, if we don’t ramp up housing starts, we could see a shortage,” DeVol says. One risk is that so many home builders leave the field during the current downturn that there could be “capacity constraints” in the long term as the U.S. population continues to grow, says John Vogel, professor of real estate at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth. There won’t be constraints in overbuilt places like Las Vegas, Phoenix, Riverside, Calif., or Miami and Ft. Lauderdale. But if the pace of home construction doesn’t pick up, “we are going to begin to see some tightness in some areas of the country that didn’t have the boom and bust occur,” DeVol says. The regions most likely to be undersupplied by mid-2012 are those where supply and demand are now in balance, says Celia Chen, senior director of housing economics at Moody’s. Chen includes states like Washington, Oregon, New Mexico and Utah in this group.

Portland Area Fireworks Displays

The 4th of July holiday is just around the corner – where are you going to be when the sun sets?

Waterfront Blues Festival: a fundraiser for the Oregon Food Bank, the Waterfront Blues Festival is the largest blues festival on the West Coast and the second largest blues festival in the nation.  Festivities begin Friday, July 2nd and continue through Monday, July 5th.  Fireworks display Sunday night at 10:00 pm.  Admission: $10 donation and two cans of non-perishable food for the food bank.

Oaks Park: open all day for rides and entertainment.  The Oaks Park fireworks display is scheduled to launch at 9:55 pm on Sunday night.  Admission to the park is $5 for adults, $2 for everyone under 15.  Gates open at 10 am, get there early and make a day of it.  Picnic areas are first come, first serve.

Blue Lake Park: the park is open all day and fireworks start at dusk.  This year’s event also features live music by The Stingrays, Aguamiel and Linda Hornbuckle.  Admission to the park is $10 per car, $15 per large van.

Vancouver National Historic Reserve: the Fort Vancouver Fireworks display is BACK!  After 46 years, the 2009 event had to be cancelled due to limited funding.  This year, the event is back thanks to the support of Bank of America and other partners, corporations and individuals.  In order to make this year’s event financially sustainable, there will be a small fee.  Doors open at 8 am – general park admission $7 (children under 12 are free) and there are additional tickets available if you’d prefer a “prime viewing” seat.

Enjoy your 4th of July holiday and be safe!

~Kori

Portland Area Dog Parks: a few of Portland’s best off-leash parks

For all you dog lovers out there, here’s a few great off-leash parks in the Portland area!

Nate & Luna Enjoying the Outdoors

UNFENCED PARKS

FENCED PARKS

Get out with the pooches and enjoy this coming summer weather!  Try a new park, you might find a new fav! 

~Kori (Nate & Luna)

June Is Dining Month Portland!

Did you know… that June is Dining Month Portland?  Presented by the Downtown Marketing Initiative, in conjunction with Travel Portland, this citywide dining promotion is patterned after restaurant weeks in other cities like New York, Seattle and Los Angeles.  For an entire month – 46 restaurants will offer three-course dinner menus – appetizer, entree, and dessert – for just $25!  In addition, SmartPark Garage is providing a $1.00 off parking but you must first download the coupon first.

Participating restaurants include: Brasserie Montmartre, Huber’s Cafe, Mama Mia Trattoria and Mother’s Bistro & Bar downtown; Bluehour, Fratelli e Bar Due and Rogue Ales Distillery and Public House in the Pearl… but don’t be fooled, the Eastside is also participating clarklewis, Eleni’s Estiatorio and Lauro Kitchen in Southeast and Lincoln and Tabla Mediterranean Bistro in North/Northeast.  Click here for a complete list of participating restaurants.

As if a three-course dinner at these fantastic local restaurants wasn’t enough, enter to win $1000 worth of restaurant gift certifiates but that’s not all – for every entry, the Downtown Marketing Initiative will donated $5 to the New Avenues for Youth (up to $5000).  So get out there and enjoy the fabulous cuisine our city has to offer and maybe you’ll win $1000 worth of restaurant gift certificates while helping Portland’s homeless youth!

Happy Dining!

~Kori

Neighborhood Clean Up 2010 – Vernon Drop Off Saturday

VERNON NEIGHBORHOOD CLEAN UP
 Saturday, May 22 from 9 am to noon

DROP OFF SITE
Redeemer Lutheran Church
NE 20th & Killingsworth 

It’s time to clean out your house, get to know your neighbors, and connect with your Neighborhood or Community Association!  Feel free to bring your household goods and recyclable materials to the Vernon Neighborhood Clean-up this weekend.

What will be accepted:

• Yard waste: $15 per load.  Metro is not accepting yard debris this year, but Wood Waste Management on NE 47th has offered to waive their fee.  NO HOUSEHOLD GARBAGE.
•  REUSE area will be available again this year, these are household goods too good to throw away – so drop off or pick up something great at the clean-up event… what better form of recycling!
• Other items that will be excepted: scrap wood, metal and tires ($2 per tire)

Please sort your loads prior to help with unloading.  They will not be accepting paint, batteries, chemicals, light bulbs, sod, dirt, lathe & plaster – these items can all be taken to METRO (FREE of charge).

If this Saturday doesn’t work for you (because you’re attending the AHC events ) – there is one more Clean Up scheduled for Woodlawn on May 29th from 9 am to 1 pm.  Drop site: 6360 NE MLK Blvd.

Have a great weekend!

~Kori

Get Out This Weekend – Two Great Programs from the AHC

Both Events Take Place Saturday May 22, 2010

 

SPECIAL EVENT!

The Fox’s Lady: Holistic Weatherization Meets Historic Preservation

9:oo am to 4:00 pm (open house style event)

Admission is FREE with a suggested donation

5915 NE Rodney

Portland, OR 97217

 

No pre-registration is required for this event.  Guided tours will be given throughout the day.  Due to space constraints, each tour is limited to a maximum of 40 people and is a first-come first-serve basis. 

This event is supported by: EcoTech LLC, Energy Trust of Oregon, Clean Energy Works Portland, Oregon State Historic Preservation Office, National Trust for Historic Preservation

Lost Oregon - 10:00 am to 11:30 am
Members: $13   General Public $18
701 SE Grand Avenue
Portland, OR 97214

Lost Oregonlooks at a selection of resources from Oregon’s now-vanished built environment.  In the past 250 years, Oregonians have built, and then lost, many remarkable structures, from Chinook longhouses to the Capital Building, from nabob’s mansions to towering wooden trestles.  Wood, our most common construction material, is cheap and adaptable; it also burns well and rots easily.  Social and economic fluctuations have also driven changes in the built environment, as railroad trestles were superseded by freeway ramps, and country churches gave way to trail courts.

Historian, Richard Engeman is the author of Wood Beams and Railroad Ties: The History of Oregon’s Built Environment (Oregon Historical Society, 2005; online at www.ohs.org) and The Oregon Companion: a Historical Gazetteer of the Useful, the Curious, and the Arcane (Timber Press, 2009).

Pre-registration is strongly suggested – visit the AHC online at www.VisitAHC.org or call the front desk at 503-231-7264.  

Have a great weekend!

~Kori   

12th Annual Kitchen Revival Tour Tomorrow

Saturday, April 10th from 10 – 4
General Public: $25
AHC Members: $20

One of the Architectural Heritage Center’s most popular events is back for a 12th year!  Don’t miss out, as this year promises to be a “Tour de Force,” complete with eight historically accurate renovations and kitchens that retain most of their original character. If you’re planning a kitchen project or just love to see inside vintage homes, this is the program for you. Come learn how kitchens have evolved from utilitarian workspaces to the center of family living. You will see first hand that kitchens can be kept intact or appropriately renovated to meet the demands of modern lifestyles. This year the tour showcases creative solutions in a variety of price ranges and in houses that run the gamut from early 20th Century to Mid-Century Modern. Homeowners will be on hand to share their experiences and lend advice. Whether it’s the preservation of an original gem, a do-it-yourself restoration, or a renovation completed under the guidance of a local contractor, the Kitchen Revival Tour promises to be both educational and entertaining.

Click image to enlarge map

Have a great weekend!

~Kori

What’s your home worth? Zillow may not know (in Portland, that is)

KATU news recently reported on Zillow in the Portland area – “What’s your home worth? Zillow may not know”.  I added the commentary in the title of (in Portland, that is) because depending upon your region and the local rules governing this data the information can be very different.

The professional appraisal of this home in the Alameda neighborhood of Northeast Portland turned up a valuation "definitely in excess of $500,000." But plug the address into Zillow.com, and you'll see a "zestimate" of only $424,000.

The article uses a subject property in the Alameda neighborhood of Northeast Portland(this is my stopping grounds – born, raised and still reside in the general area).  There are some very valid points about why using Zillow in this particular area is difficult – homes on “the ridge” can be two to three times larger than the homes on the side streets so for an electronic application that simply takes into consideration public records (i.e. tax records, title reports, etc.) these broad swings in property type create more of an average vs. a true valuation.

I like to use one of my client’s home as an example of the discrepancy of Zillow – an adorable bungalow, two blocks off Alberta on NE 27th (the heart of the Alberta Arts District).  She had refinished the hardwood floors, stripped the woodwork and re-stained, installed new “period” fixtures, fresh paint throughout, etc.  The value from Zillow – $20,000 in 2008.  Now this was not the height of the market by any means but $20,000.  Turns out, she had refinanced and given the $20,000 to an ex – he moved out, she kept the house.  Was her house worth $20,000, no – it sold for $312,00 with an offer in 30 days.

Now, I don’t think Zillow is a bad thing.  Zillow is a tool but it is not the final say.  One of the reasons Zillow’s data can be so skewed in Portland is because Zillow does not receive sales data from our local MLS system (RMLS); therefore, they cannot look at days on market (the longer you sit on the market the more your price will be impacted in a negative way - it’s best to price right and sell quick – you’re not leaving money on the table, you’re putting it in your pocket sooner and likely more than if you tried to hold out), it doesn’t see pending sales, and I’m not sure how it handles “distressed” properties (short-sale and foreclosures).  In the Seattle area, where Zillow began and still resides, the local MLS system has agreed to provide their data to Zillow which  results in more accurate “zestimates” than here in the the Portland area.

So, as with any on-line tool – take it for what it is, a tool.  Educate yourself by looking at a few different resources and then contact a REALTOR to run a current, local, market analysis.  Going back to the Alameda neighborhood, again, this is an area that I’m always talking about (the eastside in general) in my office meetings (my office is on the westside) – rules like “price per square foot” do not apply.  These homes range in age from the early 1900’s to present, some have finished basements, others not, some were “updated” oh, in the 50’s, 60’s or 70’s  and others today (as in now, not 1990).  All things must be considered (sorry for the little NPR pun) which is why it’s important to call in a professional who can give you a more comprehensive picture.

Zillow, Yahoo Real Estate, Realtor.com Home Values, Cyberhomes.com, etc… just tools like WebMD, Yelp, Ask, etc.  You might look at these sites to get an idea or a better understanding but you still go to the doctor or the mechanic for the solution.

Give me a call or drop me an email, I’d love to help you with your real estate needs.

~Kori

Metro Natural Areas Program receives a second positive review, gives $1.9 million in community grants

Great news for protecting some of our natural areas.  I recieved this press-release from Metro today – figured it may not make headline news but it’s always nice to hear something positive.

Metro Natural Areas Program receives a second positive review, gives $1.9 million in community grants
Projects include neighborhood-inspired light rail park-and-ride, creek restoration, natural area acquisition

Metro’s Natural Areas Program reached two milestones Thursday: an independent citizen oversight committee lauded the program for “staying on course,” and the Metro Council awarded $1.9 million in community nature grants.

Both accomplishments come shortly after Metro surpassed the halfway point toward its goal of protecting 4,000 acres with the region’s natural areas bond measure, which was approved in 2006 by voters in Multnomah, Washington and Clackamas counties. Combined with a 1995 bond measure, Metro has acquired more than 10,000 acres.

“Independent citizen experts are echoing our belief that Metro’s Natural Areas Program is both responsible and visionary in protecting the region’s best natural resources,” said Metro Council President David Bragdon. “It’s appropriate that, on the day independent citizens are expressing their support, we are funding innovative projects championed by five local communities.”

The Metro Council accepted its second report from the 20-member citizen-based Natural Areas Program Performance Oversight Committee, which is charged with evaluating voters’ $227 million investment in rivers and streams, wildlife habitat and outdoor recreation opportunities.

Business, real estate, finance and nonprofit professionals on the committee focused on the changing economic climate during the time period covered by the report, from July 2008 through December 2009. Because desirable natural areas typically aren’t on the market, some owners may be inclined to wait out the economy, the report said. But, the evaluation concluded, Metro’s “skillful, tenacious” team of real estate negotiators made recession-appropriate deals.

The committee also analyzed Metro’s response to previous citizen and expert recommendations, such as  strengthening public and landowner outreach, learning from every potential transaction and developing additional tools to measure the success of the program. In every case, Metro has responded by improving, the report says.

“The enthusiasm with which Metro staff greeted the committee’s suggestions is encouraging,” said committee chairman Peter Krainock, CEO of American International Supply Inc. “They exhibited a genuine willingness to accept feedback and grow in order to generate an excellent outcome.”

The committee also praised Metro for bolstering the outreach and geographic diversity of its Nature in Neighborhoods capital grants program – on display Thursday as the Metro Council made its third round of awards, totaling $1.9 million. New grants more than double the amount that’s been awarded since the program chose its first recipients in 2008, bringing the tally to $3.3 million.

Capital grants are designed to involve the community in innovative projects that incorporate nature in their neighborhoods as the region grows.  Criteria include “re-naturing” neighborhoods by improving their ecology, restoring rare habitats, demonstrating cost-efficient design solutions and providing public access.

Capital grants are available to neighborhoods, community groups, nonprofit organizations, schools, cities, counties and public park providers. Recipients must match Metro awards with outside funding or in-kind services worth at least double the amount of the grant.

“This program helps nurture new projects, giving them the best possible shot at funding,” said Sue Marshall, volunteer chair of the capital grants review committee. “Today, we’re recognizing five groups that had the right mix of creativity, resources and momentum.”

The awards spanned the region and support everything from natural area acquisition to creek restoration to public structures:

Re-Greening Park Avenue park & ride
Recipient: TriMet, Urban Green
Partners: North Clackamas Parks and Recreation District, Oak Lodge Sanitary District, North Clackamas Urban Watershed Council
Grant amount: $349,305
Total project cost: $1 million

Finding inspiration in Metro’s Integrating Habitats design competition, this project will create the region’s first sustainable, habitat-friendly light rail station and park-and-ride. When TriMet’s new orange line zips into Oak Grove in 2015, commuters will experience a re-created riparian forest, a natural stormwater treatment system and many other green features at the Park Avenue stop along Southeast McLoughlin Boulevard. Agencies and community groups are collaborating to showcase development that balances design excellence, ecological stewardship and economic enterprise. Project partners hope to restore the Courtney and Kellogg creek basins and promote low-impact development throughout the McLoughlin corridor – showing community members, Trolley Trail users and thousands of MAX riders how to restore ecosystems in a built environment.

Trillium Creek restoration
Recipient: City of West Linn
Partners: Mary S. Young Volunteers, Willamette Riverkeepers, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife,  Harris Stream Service, Robinwood Neighborhood Association
Grant amount: $55,330
Total project cost: $179,000

Students, volunteers and other community members will come together to restore a degraded stream system at Mary S. Young State Park, creating a healthy riparian corridor. Severe bank erosion has compromised the 1,045-foot section of Trillium Creek that will be transformed. The project will restore floodplain connectivity and enhance the rich diversity of native trees, shrubs and other plants along the riparian corridor and adjacent wetlands in this West Linn park. 

Baltimore Woods connectivity corridor
Recipient: City of Portland Bureau of Environmental Services, Three Rivers Land Conservancy
Partners: Portland Parks & Recreation, Friends of Baltimore Woods, Audubon Society of Portland, SOLV, Port of Portland
Grant amount: $158,000
Total project cost: $475,000

The Metro grant will help purchase four parcels, totaling one acre, within the Baltimore Woods corridor in North Portland. This acquisition will protect rare native oak trees and enhance the nature experience for bicyclists, walkers and joggers who will someday use this section of the Willamette River Greenway Trail envisioned along the adjacent street. These parcels are part of a larger natural area corridor connecting Cathedral Park and Pier parks. Active participation from city agencies, land trusts, non-profit organizations and the Friends of Baltimore Woods will involve the community in restoration and long-term stewardship. 

Crystal Springs partnership
Recipient: City of Portland Bureau of Environmental Services
Partners: Johnson Creek Watershed Council, Friends of Crystal Springs, Portland Parks & Recreation, Reed College
Grant amount: $311,480
Total project cost: $968,000

Crystal Springs has all the characteristics of an excellent salmon stream: It’s entirely spring-fed, which eliminates pollutants from urban runoff. Relatively consistent year-round flow and low temperatures attract some of Portland’s most threatened fish species. This project helps realize the stream’s potential by removing a culvert that blocks juvenile fish passage and restoring the floodplain and riparian habitat along 350 feet of the creek. Conservation easements or acquisition on three additional properties will allow future floodplain restoration.

Summer Creek natural area acquisition
Recipient: City of Tigard
Partners: The Trust for Public Land, Tualatin RiverKeepers, Tualatin Watershed Council, Fans of Fanno Creek, Washington County, Clean Water Services.
Grant amount: $1 million
Total project cost: $5.4 million

Metro will contribute to the acquisition of 43 acres of wetlands and mature forests at the confluences of Summer and Fanno creeks. The property is a high-profile natural area – the best remaining unprotected land in Tigard and, soon, the city’s second largest park. The site has functioned as an outdoor lab for students at Fowler Middle School. With the help of several community partners, this project will expand environmental education programs to students throughout Washington County.   

Metro, the regional government that serves 1.5 million people who live in the 25 cities and three counties of the Portland metropolitan area, provides planning and other services that protect the nature and livability of our region.
For more information about Metro’s Natural Areas Program, go to www.oregonmetro.gov/naturalareas

Portland’s “Versatile Stylist”: The Architectural Legacy of John V. Bennes

This Saturday at the Architectural Heritage Center, Portland’s “Versatile Stylist”: The Architectural Legacy of John V. Bennes.

Saturday, March 6, 2010
10:00 am – 11:30 am
General Public: $18, Members: $13
Pre-registration is strongly suggested

Between1906-41, John Bennes was one of Portland’s most prolific architects. Recent research has helped to define Bennes’ place in the architectural history of Portland and Oregon, and new information about him continues to be uncovered. This presentation by Larry Landis, University Archivist at Oregon State University, will explore the rich architectural legacy that Bennes created and share new information about some of his design projects. Born in Illinois and raised in Chicago, Bennes brought his knowledge of the work of Frank Lloyd Wright to Oregon in 1900. After six years in Baker City, he moved to Portland, where he introduced the Prairie Style to residential construction. He also designed hotels, movie theaters, warehouses, and other commercial buildings in a variety of styles, from Art Deco to Zigzag Moderne. Bennes also designed at least 35 buildings on the Oregon State University campus and the administration buildings at Southern Oregon, Eastern Oregon, and Western Oregon universities.

~Kori

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