A Housing Shortage on the Horizon?

If you take a step back from the current doom and gloom of foreclosures and declining sales and focus on the low construction levels over the past few years, some economists say a housing shortage might be in the offing. A 2009 report by Massachusetts Institute of Technology economics professor William Wheaton says that despite the glut of existing homes, with current depressed levels of construction, there might be “excess demand” for newly constructed homes. We’re only adding about 600,000 new housing units a year now, and the long-term growth in new households is 1.3 million to 1.4 million per year, says Ross DeVol, executive director of economic research at the Milken Institute. The household formation rate has fallen off somewhat because of the recession. But that decline is misleading because college graduates have chosen to live at home with their parents while they find their financial footing, and people defer getting married for a year or two. But long term, that household growth says that “if we build substantially less than that amount, which we’re doing now, in four, five or six years, if we don’t ramp up housing starts, we could see a shortage,” DeVol says. One risk is that so many home builders leave the field during the current downturn that there could be “capacity constraints” in the long term as the U.S. population continues to grow, says John Vogel, professor of real estate at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth. There won’t be constraints in overbuilt places like Las Vegas, Phoenix, Riverside, Calif., or Miami and Ft. Lauderdale. But if the pace of home construction doesn’t pick up, “we are going to begin to see some tightness in some areas of the country that didn’t have the boom and bust occur,” DeVol says. The regions most likely to be undersupplied by mid-2012 are those where supply and demand are now in balance, says Celia Chen, senior director of housing economics at Moody’s. Chen includes states like Washington, Oregon, New Mexico and Utah in this group.

Using GeoTracking, the app identifies where you’re located and pulls up all the actives listings in the area.  Plotted on a map you’ll see where each house is located – scroll over the little house image and you’ll get additional information about that specific home (price, number of bedrooms, bathrooms and the public remarks from RMLS). 

Here’s how to get it!  There are two ways to download and install:

1.       From your desktop computer, click here to open iTunes on your local system, which will bring up the “myAgent by IDX” application. Click to install the app – you will need to enter the agent code “7125-55” when prompted.  The next time your phone is synced to your computer, the app will be installed on your phone.

2.       Or, from your iPhone, go to the App Store, and search for “myAgent by IDX”. Click to install the myAgent app.   ***Important:  when you open the app for the first time on your iPhone, the program will ask for your agent code. Type in “7125-55”. This will give you permission to access the current data through your phone.

The data for this application is pulled directly from RMLS and works well within the Google mapping system when searching for properties, as well as viewing results throughout the greater Portland area.

Please share with your friends, family and colleagues.  No more wishing there were flyers in the box, no more questioning the list price or how many bedrooms – get the answers at the tip of your fingers on every active listing!  Of course, call me if you have additional questions – this app will only provide high level information.

Have a good one – Happy Hunting!

~Kori

Waterfront Blues Festival: a fundraiser for the Oregon Food Bank, the Waterfront Blues Festival is the largest blues festival on the West Coast and the second largest blues festival in the nation.  Festivities begin Friday, July 2nd and continue through Monday, July 5th.  Fireworks display Sunday night at 10:00 pm.  Admission: $10 donation and two cans of non-perishable food for the food bank.

Oaks Park: open all day for rides and entertainment.  The Oaks Park fireworks display is scheduled to launch at 9:55 pm on Sunday night.  Admission to the park is $5 for adults, $2 for everyone under 15.  Gates open at 10 am, get there early and make a day of it.  Picnic areas are first come, first serve.

Blue Lake Park: the park is open all day and fireworks start at dusk.  This year’s event also features live music by The Stingrays, Aguamiel and Linda Hornbuckle.  Admission to the park is $10 per car, $15 per large van.

Vancouver National Historic Reserve: the Fort Vancouver Fireworks display is BACK!  After 46 years, the 2009 event had to be cancelled due to limited funding.  This year, the event is back thanks to the support of Bank of America and other partners, corporations and individuals.  In order to make this year’s event financially sustainable, there will be a small fee.  Doors open at 8 am – general park admission $7 (children under 12 are free) and there are additional tickets available if you’d prefer a “prime viewing” seat.

Enjoy your 4th of July holiday and be safe!

~Kori

Nate & Luna Enjoying the Outdoors

UNFENCED PARKS

FENCED PARKS

Get out with the pooches and enjoy this coming summer weather!  Try a new park, you might find a new fav! 

~Kori (Nate & Luna)

It’s not all bad news – rates have also continued to decline.  We saw rates hovering around 5.5% to 5% during the credit, NOW, rates are holding fairly steady at 4.75% or lower across the board.  Money is loosing up, even at the higher end of the market.  Jumbo loans had been difficult to come by and the interest rates, astronomical – we are now starting to see money become available at the Jumbo level too (5.85% with 10% down).  For more information on rates and what you might qualify for contact Chris Jordon with Hyperion Capital Group – 503-970-1286.

Although the tax credit was a great incentive, the incentive to buy is still there.  Values are still low and rates are FANTSATIC!  It’s not as sexy as the tax credit but in the end buyers today will save more than $8000 in the long run.

If you know anyone who is looking to buy or sell a home, please pass along my name and contact information.

~Kori

Did you know… that June is Dining Month Portland?  Presented by the Downtown Marketing Initiative, in conjunction with Travel Portland, this citywide dining promotion is patterned after restaurant weeks in other cities like New York, Seattle and Los Angeles.  For an entire month – 46 restaurants will offer three-course dinner menus – appetizer, entree, and dessert – for just $25!  In addition, SmartPark Garage is providing a $1.00 off parking but you must first download the coupon first.

Participating restaurants include: Brasserie Montmartre, Huber’s Cafe, Mama Mia Trattoria and Mother’s Bistro & Bar downtown; Bluehour, Fratelli e Bar Due and Rogue Ales Distillery and Public House in the Pearl… but don’t be fooled, the Eastside is also participating clarklewis, Eleni’s Estiatorio and Lauro Kitchen in Southeast and Lincoln and Tabla Mediterranean Bistro in North/Northeast.  Click here for a complete list of participating restaurants.

As if a three-course dinner at these fantastic local restaurants wasn’t enough, enter to win $1000 worth of restaurant gift certifiates but that’s not all – for every entry, the Downtown Marketing Initiative will donated $5 to the New Avenues for Youth (up to $5000).  So get out there and enjoy the fabulous cuisine our city has to offer and maybe you’ll win $1000 worth of restaurant gift certificates while helping Portland’s homeless youth!

Happy Dining!

~Kori

VERNON NEIGHBORHOOD CLEAN UP

DROP OFF SITE
Redeemer Lutheran Church
NE 20th & Killingsworth 

It’s time to clean out your house, get to know your neighbors, and connect with your Neighborhood or Community Association!  Feel free to bring your household goods and recyclable materials to the Vernon Neighborhood Clean-up this weekend.

What will be accepted:

• Yard waste: $15 per load.  Metro is not accepting yard debris this year, but Wood Waste Management on NE 47th has offered to waive their fee.  NO HOUSEHOLD GARBAGE.
•  REUSE area will be available again this year, these are household goods too good to throw away – so drop off or pick up something great at the clean-up event… what better form of recycling!
• Other items that will be excepted: scrap wood, metal and tires ($2 per tire)

Please sort your loads prior to help with unloading.  They will not be accepting paint, batteries, chemicals, light bulbs, sod, dirt, lathe & plaster – these items can all be taken to METRO (FREE of charge).

If this Saturday doesn’t work for you (because you’re attending the AHC events ) – there is one more Clean Up scheduled for Woodlawn on May 29th from 9 am to 1 pm.  Drop site: 6360 NE MLK Blvd.

Have a great weekend!

~Kori

Lost Oregon - 10:00 am to 11:30 am
Members: $13   General Public $18
701 SE Grand Avenue
Portland, OR 97214

Lost Oregonlooks at a selection of resources from Oregon’s now-vanished built environment.  In the past 250 years, Oregonians have built, and then lost, many remarkable structures, from Chinook longhouses to the Capital Building, from nabob’s mansions to towering wooden trestles.  Wood, our most common construction material, is cheap and adaptable; it also burns well and rots easily.  Social and economic fluctuations have also driven changes in the built environment, as railroad trestles were superseded by freeway ramps, and country churches gave way to trail courts.

Historian, Richard Engeman is the author of Wood Beams and Railroad Ties: The History of Oregon’s Built Environment (Oregon Historical Society, 2005; online at www.ohs.org) and The Oregon Companion: a Historical Gazetteer of the Useful, the Curious, and the Arcane (Timber Press, 2009).

Pre-registration is strongly suggested – visit the AHC online at www.VisitAHC.org or call the front desk at 503-231-7264.  

Have a great weekend!

~Kori   

I will be interested to see what happens with May’s numbers.  The market up to April 30, 2010 was largely driven by the first time homebuyers and the tax credit which is why I believe we saw such a substaintual increase in closed and pending transactions (remember, buyers just needed to be under contract by April 30th – close by June 30th).  I think May will have a decent number of closings but down from April – ditto for June - and we will see a sharp decline in pending transactions in the coming months which by July will result in a decline in closed transactions as well.

All that being said, if rates remain low and confidence in the market continues to rise, I think we will see an uptick in the average sales price.  Remember, with an average, there are highs and lows.  With the market being dominated by the first time buyer for the past six months we have seen values soften simply due to their price range (and the limitation on income per the tax credit which limited the first time buyer to a home less than $300,000 on average).

I think the next few months will be very interesting.  As I said, rates are still at record lows but they cannot remain there forever and consumer confidence is on the rise.  When we see confidence return to all markets (retail, stock, housing, etc) we will also see an increase in interest rates.  It’s simple cost vs. demand economics. 

We saw an increase in new building projects in April (5.8% increase – the highest since October 2008) - shoot, my neighborhood (Vernon/Alberta Arts) alone has half a dozen to a dozen new homes going up within a 5 block radius.  On the flip side, new building permits fell sharply in April signaling builders are a little hesitant; however, a survey done by the National Association of Home Builders said its housing index, which ranks industry confidence, rose three points in May, the highest ranking since August 2007.

We are starting to see a shift in the market.  Unlike the early-to-mid 2000’s, where we saw home values increase rapidly, I think the recovery will be slow but fairly steady, creating a much more stable market and overall economy.  I’m looking forward to the next few months because I believe there is great opportunity in the real estate market in Portland but I do believe we are seeing the market turn the corner – at least in some areas of town.  I’ve spoke about this website before, but here is a link where you can look up property values by zip code (within Portland).  The same zip I used before – 97213 (close-in NE neighborhood) – shows values inching their way back up to 2006 levels.  It’s not rapid but it’s happening and will continue to show improvement over the next several months.

~Kori

For those of you who are also planning those “easy” cosmentic projects around the house (I say “easy” because it’s not that easy and the hardest part is picking the color) here’s a few tips to get you started.

PAINT IT – from the Washington Post, May 6, 2010, by: Jura Koncius
Architect Adam McGraw and wife Eliza McGraw, a writer who sometimes reports on design, are fearless when it comes to choosing paint colors. Here is their philosophy on paints and some practical advice on selecting colors yourself.

• Find colors from your past that inspire you. The McGraws drew from their childhood rooms and every other place they’ve lived in for the paint colors for their bungalow in the Palisades. Your muse could be a favorite restaurant or a friend’s living room. Go to open houses in your neighborhood to help narrow your selections.
• Choose trim color carefully. There are hundreds of shades of white. The McGraws go-to trim paint is Atrium White by Benjamin Moore, a clean, crisp pick.
• Never believe you can settle on a color just from a paint chip. Buy a quart or small pot and paint broad swaths of color, inspecting them in sunlight and lamplight. The McGraws test paints in three places in a room before they commit: opposite windows, next to windows and going down both sides of a corner.
• Try a strong color in your kitchen. It’s a good place to make a color statement because the wall space you need to paint is usually very small due to cabinets and appliances. A bold color with white trim frames everything.
• Get over your fear of fan decks. If you find Benjamin Moore’s Color Preview fan of 1,621 colors overwhelming, go with a brand that has culled selections to a more manageable palette: Farrow & Ball, Restoration Hardware or Stark Paint. Or just stick with Benjamin Moore Historical Colors, 174 timeless shades inspired by 18th- and 19th-century interiors and architecture.

This article really promotes Benjamin Moore paints; however, here in Portland, we have a great alternative resource that is both frugal and environmentally friendly – check out METRO recycled paints.  Little tip: ask to see their “book” of expanded color choices just make sure that when you do decide on a color – get all the paint you need and a little extra because the next batch most likely will not match exactly.

Happy Painting!

~Kori